Wedbush Morgan Analyst Michael Pachter has gone on record stating that there is no way the next console from Sony or Microsoft will block used games.
Blocking used games made no sense for the console manufacturers, according to Pachter.
“Sony doesn’t sell that much software – maybe 10 per cent of sales are Sony products. Everything else, the other 90 per cent, is third-party. Sony isn’t going to help its overall sales that much – let’s go with one, two per cent,” he said.
In addition, the number of sales lost to the second-hand market was over-estimated by publishers, he reasoned.
“So what’s the cannibalisation? My guess is five per cent probably, because most people don’t finish games in a week, most people take three weeks to a month to finish games, not everybody buys a game the first day, and in reality about 40 per cent of all games sold get traded back in.
“I’d say about five per cent of the time somebody buys a used game instead of a new game, that costs the publisher a new sale.”
Further, this five per cent was made back by publishers when gamers used the money from selling games to purchase new ones, Pachter reasoned.
“[Publishers] don’t think about those unused credits that sit in gamer’s pockets that fuel that next game purchase.”
Therefore, it was unlikely that either Sony or Microsoft would institute a block on used games.
“Neither Microsoft nor Sony are dumb enough to do it by themselves, and neither Microsoft nor Sony are evil enough to do it together. Answer: not happening,” he said.
Michael Pachter said that Sony's Jack Tretton's stance mirrored his own.
"He [Tretton] said, 'for the record, I'm totally opposed to blocking used games. I think it's great for the consumer that they can buy those. We have a customer that buys our console late in the cycle, pays less, is looking for value priced games, and I think it would be anti-consumer for us to do that'," Pachter said.